Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak Prediction Using Epidemiological Models of Richards Gompertz Logistic Ratkowsky and SIRD

EasyChair Preprint no. 4601

Abstract

In this study, several widely used models, including Richards, Gompertz, Logistic, Ratkowsky, and SIRD models, are used to project dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the future of Iran by fitting the present and the past clinical data. Iran is the only country facing a second wave of COVID-19 infections, which makes its data difficult to analyze. The main contribution of the present study is to forecast the near-future of COVID-19 trends to allow non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) by public health authorities and/or government policymakers. We have divided the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran into two waves, Wave I, from February 20, 2020 to May 4, 2020, and Wave II from May 5, 2020, to the present. Two statistical methods, i.e., Pearson correlation coefficient (R) and the coefficient of determination (R2), are used to assess the accuracy of studied models. Results for Wave I Logistic, Ratkowsky, and SIRD models have correctly fitted COVID-19 data in Iran. SIRD model has fitted very closely the first peak of infection on April 6, 2020 with 34,447 cases (Actual peak day was April 7, 2020, with 30,387 active infected cases) with the re-production number R0=3.95. Results of Wave II indicate that the SIRD model has precisely fitted with the second peak of infection, which was on June 20, 2020, with 19,088 active infected cases compared with the actual peak day on June 21, 2020 with 17,644 cases. In Wave II, the re-production number R0=1.45 is reduced, indicating a lower transmission rate. We aimed to provide even a rough project future trends of COVID-19 in Iran for NPI decisions. Between 180,000 to 250,000 infected cases and a death tool of between 6,000 to 65,000 cases are expected in Wave II of COVID-19 in Iran. There is currently no analytical method to project more waves of COVID-19 beyond Wave II.

Keyphrases: compartmental model, coronavirus disease, COVID-19, epidemiological model, outbreak model, SARS-CoV-2

@Booklet{EasyChair:4601,
  author = {Ahmad Sedaghat and Seyed Amir Abbas Oloomi and Mahdi Ashtian Malayer and Shahab S. Band and Nima Rezaei and Amir Mosavi and Laszlo Nadai},
  title = {Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak Prediction Using Epidemiological Models of Richards Gompertz Logistic Ratkowsky and SIRD},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 4601},

  year = {EasyChair, 2020}}